NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e01095f0a49675478330253d73dbf49b7232b1a635e7a8828496fb4b7ed536c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 50c | 2,070$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 59c | 1,053$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.8 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 958.17$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Under | 46c | 95.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 54c | 95.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 55c | 93.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 45c | 93.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…4fcebacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e82…151abacked Under | 44c | 45.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 46c | 33.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5this page
- Bucks vs. RaptorsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.