NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcffcf7b21ffe275a85ca9178abde4cf42bd63a48b9379a53a4525455d9535c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 51c | 3,591$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.11 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 1,715$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.02 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 44c | 1,591$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 1,427$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…dc00backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…6b5abacked Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…7a01backed Under | 44c | 964.29$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.29 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…4ab1backed Over | 56c | 964.29$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…49a2backed Under | 44c | 960.71$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…7372backed Over | 56c | 960.71$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4874…7123backed Over | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…2b46backed Under | 44c | 900$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 765.31$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf2…a258backed Under | 46c | 555$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…86e0backed Over | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Under | 44c | 550$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 49c | 482.92$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.57 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 52c | 283.9$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.27 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 49c | 93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5this page
- Bucks vs. RaptorsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.