Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e1a0ad0d8d90cb11a936b9f5495081e4b4d71bfc3c7cfc95cc44b6ec85fe483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked No | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 36c | 631.77$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.83 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 451.34$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Yes | 65c | 450.04$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.29 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05a2…468cbacked No | 35c | 399.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…363abacked Yes | 64c | 313.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 34c | 296.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 64c | 235.79$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 64c | 206.38$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 63c | 189.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Yes | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 34c | 150.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Yes | 64c | 117.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 66c | 72.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 34c | 62.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 35c | 61.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 65c | 56.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 66c | 48.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 32c | 45.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed No | 36c | 43.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 64c | 38.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 64c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x996e…fe9fbacked Yes | 64c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 65c | 28.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 66c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Yes | 64c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…6e0bbacked Yes | 64c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…686ebacked Yes | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Yes | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 66c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…e3d1backed Yes | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.