Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3cf778522b72ba1aec4a080206c269c7270b2e3275293181b0c7de245d2e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 66c | 5,941$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.1 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Over | 65c | 2,937$1,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 34c | 2,689$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 35c | 2,102$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.99 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 35c | 1,830$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.38 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 1,552$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 34c | 1,520$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.35 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 28c | 1,225$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.12 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 66c | 1,088$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.03 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 74c | 1,022$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.23 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 34c | 984.23$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.8 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 792.67$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.18 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 35c | 604$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 39c | 568.98$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.9 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 397.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 40c | 347.04$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 35c | 324.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.47 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 63c | 310.93$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 79c | 247.58$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…b793backed Under | 39c | 197.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 37c | 190.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…1b9cbacked Over | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 36c | 129.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 37c | 124.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 62c | 98.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…6c90backed Over | 65c | 94.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 61c | 84.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Over | 62c | 82.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc8…251abacked Over | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 64c | 73.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 63c | 58.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 51.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Under | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…6075backed Over | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…0d3bbacked Over | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 38c | 46.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 38c | 46.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 38c | 46.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Over | 65c | 39.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Under | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…6e0bbacked Over | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d3cbbacked Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Over | 64c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…844cbacked Over | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 64c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.