Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0c066ad7ec751d5c6fe519a72a21a7658f1da1dd6a9cd4251c9a7ad8db4a343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimof FC Augsburg, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed FC Augsburg | 18c | 498.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Augsburg | 13c | 477.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked FC Augsburg | 28c | 475.53$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 62c | 174.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed FC Augsburg | 14c | 164.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Augsburg | 21c | 121.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Augsburg | 31c | 74.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Augsburg | 29c | 49.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 79c | 37.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 76c | 30.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 76c | 30.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 76c | 30.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 76c | 30.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 76c | 30.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 74c | 26.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 76c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 76c | 24.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 62c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)this page
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.