Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44263fe034ba102601a541a20bb0ba26515856792f0cffab5a0df990103b7e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd29…77aebacked Over | 43c | 37,984$16,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,719.38 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 7,722$4,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,408.78 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 4,426$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.88 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 57c | 3,566$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.67 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 56c | 2,465$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 58c | 2,438$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.54 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 56c | 2,348$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.88 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 57c | 2,271$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.64 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 57c | 2,004$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.13 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 59c | 1,363$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.46 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 57c | 1,271$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.21 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 57c | 1,271$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.21 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 57c | 1,271$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.21 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 57c | 1,271$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.21 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 57c | 1,271$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.21 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 57c | 1,271$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.21 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 57c | 1,271$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.21 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 57c | 999.98$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.99 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 57c | 854.53$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.08 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 57c | 854.53$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.08 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 754.65$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.62 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 600.48$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.2 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 40c | 482$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 57c | 454.22$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.9 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 57c | 427.28$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.55 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 57c | 427.26$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.54 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 60c | 340$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 40c | 284.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.63 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 13c | 234$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 42c | 230.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 58c | 215.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 37c | 194.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 21c | 189.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 57c | 170.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 57c | 170.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 58c | 161.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Under | 61c | 155.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 57c | 147$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…aac5backed Under | 20c | 138.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 136.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 51c | 132.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 57c | 118.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 42c | 116.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 58c | 101$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 60c | 97.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 42c | 91.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…6c90backed Over | 44c | 87.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 39c | 81.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 40c | 73.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 43c | 72.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Under | 43c | 71.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 57c | 68.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 44c | 59.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 49c | 49.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 44c | 48.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Under | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 39c | 44.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Under | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Over | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9744…cab4backed Under | 57c | 31.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked Under | 62c | 30.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…2d5bbacked Over | 62c | 29.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 40c | 26.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 58c | 26.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…36ddbacked Under | 40c | 25.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…cad4backed Under | 59c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Under | 57c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 58c | 20.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 57c | 19.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.