Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e2ca86fe2e43a3277bf4bce315af68397f8a29eb8ba1eb19f3472ac79284eb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 77c | 929.78$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.61 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 26c | 709.59$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.58 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 25c | 689.1$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.27 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 26c | 566.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 27c | 350$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 73c | 229.83$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 69c | 223.85$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…64adbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 160.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 26c | 155.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes | 26c | 133.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 26c | 93.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b7…af8bbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 88.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1fe8backed No | 75c | 85.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…9e0cbacked Yes | 27c | 85.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…2bd2backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…1601backed Yes | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…d04fbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 274 | 54%148 W · 126 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…a1bdbacked No | 74c | 46.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…46f2backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 66c | 39.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…f87dbacked Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…5250backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-02?Yes won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.