MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e6cf59c6f51bd8b4154a5326a1d257a370c4a36044534cf771f935fb4692937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 49c | 4,119$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.47 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 42c | 2,452$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 35c | 2,289$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.14 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed New York Mets | 73c | 1,320$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.47 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 1,023$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.15 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 698$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 299.56$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 42c | 180.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 122$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 100.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed New York Mets | 36c | 84.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed New York Mets | 36c | 83.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 82.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Mets | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 67.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed New York Mets | 36c | 65.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked New York Mets | 36c | 65.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked New York Mets | 35c | 56.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 54.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 32.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 34c | 30.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.