MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f3e585d82d2dab91e18cbb98238735c5f2ba9b0543cbcea31fdbd619db7f6b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Atlanta Braves, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 5,239$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.48 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 63c | 2,753$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 1,835$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.76 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 62c | 1,330$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 64c | 1,175$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 1,005$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.16 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 62c | 750$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Mets | 62c | 568.32$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.19 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 64c | 533.63$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed New York Mets | 64c | 427.24$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 62c | 298$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 222.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Mets | 62c | 181$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 71c | 156$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 121.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 51c | 113$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 105.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 75c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked New York Mets | 65c | 81.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 18c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed New York Mets | 61c | 72.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 20c | 58.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 51.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked New York Mets | 61c | 32.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 32.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed New York Mets | 65c | 28.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…00a9backed New York Mets | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Mets | 61c | 27.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked New York Mets | 61c | 26.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets | 55c | 21.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed New York Mets | 61c | 21.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked New York Mets | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed New York Mets | 63c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.