MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48e40beea1b4fcb8c0db7ebe253dc37c674b9e7da8d4ead7830cec17342ac1c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 64c | 15,794$10,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,049.44 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 38c | 11,202$4,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,968.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 36c | 3,968$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 489.88$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 464.97$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.55 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 36c | 402.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.77 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 236$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 17c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 36c | 152.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 43c | 147.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 135.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 67c | 132.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 63c | 120.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 104.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 55c | 88.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 85.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 64c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 62.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 53c | 43.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 27c | 41.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 38.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 60c | 36.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 33.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 66c | 32.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 31.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 62c | 31.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 48c | 31.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 28.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 52c | 22.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 49c | 22.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Over | 61c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.