World Politics · resolved market
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election by between 20% and 30%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e728874ead801fbe4e0ebfb92b9286f8c5c5c30ad390f8a52b245ffd376f5b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 64c | 518.94$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 300$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 9c | 192.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 39c | 181.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 136$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 127.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…6358backed Yes | 47c | 126.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a8…6c09backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +1,619.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 39c | 83.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…1e00backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…4aacbacked Yes | 41c | 43.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…c5fabacked Yes | 38c | 39.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…85f5backed Yes | 49c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…2234backed Yes | 73c | 27.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…929fbacked Yes | 75c | 23.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 19.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election by between 20% and 30%?this page
- Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election by 40% or more?No won
- Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election by between 10% and 20%?Yes won
- Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election by between 30% and 40%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.