Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ebba8a0cba2eea91e5f20762eacbaca2e3384f81f243698dcf783a31de137d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 23c | 8,544$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.37 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 2,999$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 2,235$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.19 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 2,050$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.89 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,512$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 23c | 829.39$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 28c | 727.48$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.51 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 6c | 416$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 74c | 299.01$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 28c | 296.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 77c | 188.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 77c | 188.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 77c | 188.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 77c | 188.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 171.49$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Yes | 24c | 139.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 27c | 106.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 74c | 99.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 74c | 99.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 74c | 99.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 74c | 99.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 74c | 99.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 74c | 99.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 74c | 99.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 74c | 99.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe2…2c56backed Yes | 23c | 98.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 22c | 86.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 75c | 72.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 73c | 67.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 76c | 66.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 78c | 51.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 21c | 47.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 77c | 46.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 77c | 46.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5d…ef01backed Yes | 27c | 42.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 26c | 41.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 77c | 34.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 71c | 34.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 72c | 27.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 72c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed No | 77c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…af86backed No | 79c | 14.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed No | 74c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?this page
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.