World Politics · resolved market
Will Maricarmen Alva be the next President of Peru?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ebd86ea338e324343544dbd541263f5577d9efc66f11be8dea3bc2d14f4aad1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked Yes | 2c | 799.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +527.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…2d2dbacked Yes | 72c | 338.72$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 10c | 292.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.81 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed Yes | 61c | 254.34$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 61c | 234.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5578…e372backed No | 19c | 205.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 53c | 130.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 12c | 85.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…85f8backed No | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…69b3backed Yes | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 34c | 72.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 22c | 71.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +190.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…f35bbacked Yes | 60c | 57.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…7731backed No | 18c | 55.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +253.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f3b5backed Yes | 38c | 43.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…d0c0backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 58c | 35.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 22.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…fe59backed No | 62c | 21.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0742backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Maricarmen Alva be the next President of Peru?this page
- Will Edgard Reymundo be the next President of Peru?No won
- Will Héctor Acuña be the next President of Peru?No won
- Will José María Balcazar be the next President of Peru?Yes won
- Will Silvia Monteza be the next President of Peru?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.