NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6edfdb338a558af3f9b3112df1cf1ab2932ae573720fd9388e4386019a0f4a5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Mavericks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ec3…3cdcbacked Mavericks | 51c | 144,117$73,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,499.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…d2d0backed Wizards | 49c | 37,068$18,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,904.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…1176backed Wizards | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…6927backed Wizards | 49c | 15,723$7,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,018.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…effabacked Wizards | 49c | 15,028$7,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,664.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…e415backed Wizards | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,650 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f28…ce03backed Mavericks | 51c | 14,206$7,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,245.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…80c8backed Wizards | 49c | 13,121$6,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,691.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…71edbacked Wizards | 49c | 11,670$5,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,951.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7878…d30bbacked Wizards | 49c | 10,749$5,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,481.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…42e1backed Wizards | 49c | 9,979$4,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,089.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821a…d2bbbacked Wizards | 49c | 8,861$4,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,519.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7a…a385backed Mavericks | 51c | 7,075$3,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,608.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…e11dbacked Wizards | 49c | 7,032$3,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 49cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0b72backed Mavericks | 51c | 6,992$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…b95ebacked Wizards | 49c | 5,880$2,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4af…1fa6backed Mavericks | 51c | 5,704$2,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b3…c419backed Wizards | 49c | 5,630$2,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,871.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…8fe8backed Mavericks | 51c | 5,553$2,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,832.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…bd69backed Mavericks | 51c | 5,505$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,807.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c5…2316backed Wizards | 49c | 5,080$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecf…06f9backed Wizards | 49c | 5,065$2,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5094…a296backed Wizards | 49c | 4,852$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…5ee8backed Mavericks | 51c | 4,743$2,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards | 50c | 4,287$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.17 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…2bccbacked Wizards | 49c | 4,269$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…1941backed Mavericks | 51c | 4,069$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Mavericks | 50c | 3,945$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,985.98 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…318cbacked Mavericks | 51c | 3,417$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…75e9backed Wizards | 49c | 3,407$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…3b01backed Wizards | 49c | 3,363$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…a0a3backed Wizards | 49c | 3,328$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…cfc7backed Mavericks | 51c | 3,013$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc943…7626backed Wizards | 49c | 2,948$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 47c | 2,830$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.19 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.19 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Wizards | 49c | 2,206$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Mavericks | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…2a64backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,963$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…5fb6backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,937$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6633…ea16backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,879$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x590f…5b28backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,844$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Mavericks | 48c | 1,813$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.1 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…2e48backed Wizards | 49c | 1,396$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…aea0backed Wizards | 49c | 1,354$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…0931backed Wizards | 49c | 1,349$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…1bd5backed Wizards | 49c | 1,079$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…012ebacked Wizards | 49c | 1,027$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…6f0cbacked Mavericks | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Wizards | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…26b3backed Wizards | 49c | 954$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…2e51backed Wizards | 49c | 947$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…749cbacked Mavericks | 51c | 933$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…fed1backed Mavericks | 51c | 918$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -73%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…a99ebacked Wizards | 49c | 780$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…a386backed Wizards | 49c | 591$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc198…a24fbacked Mavericks | 51c | 585$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e3…5bfdbacked Mavericks | 51c | 577$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Mavericks | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992c…3ae9backed Wizards | 49c | 453$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 50c | 448.6$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c40…9c3abacked Wizards | 49c | 423$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1922…3f90backed Mavericks | 51c | 408$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…c373backed Mavericks | 51c | 353$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa694…7acfbacked Wizards | 49c | 323$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…c524backed Mavericks | 51c | 294$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…96adbacked Wizards | 49c | 268$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Mavericks | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Mavericks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc37c…ba27backed Mavericks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Mavericks | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 50c | 53.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Mavericks | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Mavericks | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 304 | 44.7%136 W · 168 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…a49cbacked Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Mavericks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. MavericksWizards won
- Wizards vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.