Movies · resolved market
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 36m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ee0e72fd98fb7191971ae58b1d2053cc3041ef2e8a7564984ee3991bbe7c627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x181b…be49backed Yes | 50c | 20,777$10,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,388.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…2a37backed No | 50c | 20,777$10,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,388.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…ed7abacked No | 3c | 3,404$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked No | 41c | 3,051$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.91 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 2,646$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 6c | 2,547$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed No | 26c | 2,188$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.91 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -86%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 47c | 2,065$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.68 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,695$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.67 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 19c | 1,124$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.54 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 74c | 1,113$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.89 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…4485backed No | 23c | 1,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 32c | 478.62$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 10c | 289.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked Yes | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 63c | 200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 9c | 171.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 13c | 121.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…9d52backed Yes | 33c | 98.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 43c | 94.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef9…d93abacked No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 64c | 77.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 36c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 36m?this page
- Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 36m and 40m?No won
- Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 44m?No won
- Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.