Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eeae752c6c178d7eb3b11d2ed20747d2e49adf1a87e790c5b2ebdb49210513a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 50c | 315$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.05 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 52c | 247$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.91 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 239.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 54c | 210$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 210$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 77c | 207.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 192.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 52c | 191.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 188.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 188.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 77c | 148.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 29c | 127.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 632 | 21.8%138 W · 494 L | -33.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 47c | 111$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 43c | 107.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 53c | 102.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 100.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 49c | 99.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 97.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…4bf0backed No | 53c | 97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 92.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 54c | 83.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 55c | 82.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 79.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 49c | 70.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 63.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 63.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 62.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 27c | 54.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 25c | 49.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 48.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 47c | 47.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 54c | 46.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 37.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 35.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 61c | 34.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 62c | 32.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 107 | 19.6%21 W · 86 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 30.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 56c | 30.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 53c | 30.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 73c | 29.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 28.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…d9dabacked Yes | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…0c18backed Yes | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…a644backed Yes | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…5026backed Yes | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…d661backed Yes | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 61c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 50c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 48c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 70c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…f233backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.