Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ef7c58bd17ad64e4ebc3d47078cbb706de7ea7b5dc6e50ab70971607ececcff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 12c | 10,183$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.06 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 19c | 8,064$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.62 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 18c | 7,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.99 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 20c | 5,206$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.12 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 11c | 2,510$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.97 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 19c | 2,010$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,283$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.14 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,271$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.93 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 559.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 20c | 142.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 18c | 137$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 13c | 130.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 14c | 118.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 76c | 104.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 100.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 18c | 99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 15c | 95.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 21c | 70.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 80c | 65.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 17c | 65.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 16c | 62.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed Yes | 21c | 55.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-16?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?No won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.