TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,972
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,972 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d5…66d8backed No39c32,059$12,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,436.474261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes63c9,986$6,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,738.2235550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes61c9,351$5,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6071,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes64c5,276$3,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.8421547.9%103 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.9817740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked No2c3,621$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624413.6%6 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked No38c3,518$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.4122841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes61c2,843$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.7412654%68 W · 58 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Yes61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7804334.9%15 W · 28 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes63c1,877$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.493540%14 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed No43c1,625$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.759747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes61c1,111$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.291,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03de…4bfdbacked No11c1,111$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.212548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Yes61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3903441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes67c895.53$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.381,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed No42c850$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3573751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x674b…8284backed No38c821.05$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed Yes61c820.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3230…9cfcbacked No37c749.99$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked No27c740.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.914850%24 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes61c717.95$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.665154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3269…d5b3backed No37c699.99$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…b852backed No37c699.88$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes61c699.25$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.711,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No12c678.67$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4199340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes61c648.23$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.873,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x547f…2937backed No40c641.23$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.491752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed Yes61c604.92$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.923775.7%28 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed No40c577.65$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.062755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed No9c569.3$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.917244.8%77 W · 95 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes60c462.63$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7773438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked No14c449.93$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.999437.2%35 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes62c439$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.829944.4%44 W · 55 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes61c421.21$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.2797146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No5c409.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4913228.8%38 W · 94 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No21c409$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.711,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes61c403.34$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3670249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e1…6851backed Yes63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1482100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+62.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x561b…837ebacked Yes63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7552…72cfbacked Yes63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f40…92b2backed Yes63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed Yes61c356$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.841844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed Yes63c333.33$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.332759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…5d2ebacked Yes61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.873100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Yes61c324.19$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.4410450%52 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes61c306$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3455750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes61c306$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3468550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes61c306$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3491553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf2…a258backed Yes63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No38c275$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.56546.2%30 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No37c270.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3412146.3%56 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes61c260.84$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.7310042%42 W · 58 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84df…e3b8backed Yes63c250$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes60c233.05$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.721,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1d…f2dfbacked No13c210$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed No40c208.62$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4520043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788447.6%40 W · 44 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x851b…961ebacked Yes63c196.83$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.832133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed No27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012551.2%64 W · 61 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked No23c184.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed No38c178$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6420133.3%67 W · 134 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked Yes63c175$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x677d…4907backed Yes63c174.73$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.65475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+54.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca10backed No11c172.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.948344.6%37 W · 46 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+40.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes69c168$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6544447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Yes63c160.84$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.861421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9879…47dcbacked Yes63c159$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+229.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b25…edc5backed Yes63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Yes61c153.85$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8526450%132 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes59c149.98$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8920449%100 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes61c147.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No39c143.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.235149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes63c123.81$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.812152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked No43c110$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.310754.2%58 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yes57c103.2$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4436646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Yes74c101.73$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7519852.5%104 W · 94 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138032.5%26 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe70…7533backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed Yes62c99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.891361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No43c92.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.582133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1b8…19e4backed Yes59c84.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.451050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No13c83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7992346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes61c80.37$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3412850%64 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3820…ffc3backed No41c80.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa845…6b8fbacked Yes63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.37250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Yes62c77.17$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2616948.5%82 W · 87 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes62c74.28$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3272850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed No28c73.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.622437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeefa…f400backed No28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked No36c67.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.37460.8%45 W · 29 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+38.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba5e…153bbacked Yes61c65.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.377339.7%29 W · 44 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x355b…b344backed Yes63c62.65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31df…a49ebacked Yes64c62.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.52977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78e1…7337backed No40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-70.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6522…3a5abacked No37c59.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47df…2183backed Yes58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Yes59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.859268.5%63 W · 29 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+17.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.