Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e3ed4e70b472f2427d0245ae65e25865c429e31d55192b437a2d3ff18263fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 20c | 7,500$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 80c | 5,715$4,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 2,083$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.11 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 1,783$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.91 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 79c | 1,773$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.33 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 21c | 1,540$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.4 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 80c | 1,509$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.82 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,444$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.71 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 1,310$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.16 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 21c | 864$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…86e1backed Yes | 10c | 476.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 20c | 444.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 14c | 392.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Yes | 21c | 378.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 15c | 348.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 20c | 221.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed Yes | 12c | 209.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 80c | 159.5$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 126.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 19c | 90.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 19c | 68.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 80c | 35.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked No | 80c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.