Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f54762e37688d8d2bc19585a4d5e55612d570074b406e426f0613a44390bc23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 18c | 559.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed Aurora | 75c | 397.91$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed Aurora | 70c | 373.75$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AVULUS | 42c | 365.88$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Aurora | 73c | 350$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Aurora | 76c | 262.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Aurora | 55c | 253.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 29c | 231.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked AVULUS | 32c | 222.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed AVULUS | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed AVULUS | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed AVULUS | 36c | 145.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Aurora | 57c | 121.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora | 57c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed AVULUS | 30c | 108$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…4afebacked Aurora | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked AVULUS | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked AVULUS | 50c | 92.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Aurora | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Aurora | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…ad51backed Aurora | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Aurora | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…627bbacked Aurora | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.