Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x275204a8663ac92b410f006e6b187d949528ff31d53d1b1c9c6724724053a598
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 47c | 6,194$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.77 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 67c | 2,416$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.73 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed AVULUS | 68c | 1,400$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed AVULUS | 54c | 1,329$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.46 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 32c | 1,300$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 55c | 1,200$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.44 | 921 | 56.5%520 W · 401 L | +78.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed AVULUS | 35c | 1,169$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.01 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 14c | 1,122$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.71 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…08f5backed AVULUS | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed AVULUS | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed AVULUS | 33c | 879$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.07 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed AVULUS | 67c | 654.79$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.71 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 25c | 505.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Aurora | 34c | 443.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.07 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora | 12c | 408.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.82 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 16c | 382.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.18 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 32c | 221.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Aurora | 44c | 209.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Aurora | 18c | 195$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed AVULUS | 76c | 180$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…e1a3backed Aurora | 74c | 153.52$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Aurora | 23c | 144.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…f428backed AVULUS | 39c | 143.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora | 16c | 125.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Aurora | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed AVULUS | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed AVULUS | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked AVULUS | 71c | 77.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed AVULUS | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed AVULUS | 50c | 70.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked AVULUS | 60c | 57.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked AVULUS | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed AVULUS | 22c | 55.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Aurora | 30c | 38.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.