Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f8498b71d1090ce68b23c2598298bd903a91debc70558084245c7685c72fce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 196.85$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 37c | 166.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 161.05$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 21c | 143.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 135.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 135$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 132.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 73c | 131.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 33c | 124.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 72c | 123.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…9a1abacked Yes | 26c | 119.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 109.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 95.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 20c | 77.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 79c | 75.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 68.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…deacbacked Yes | 23c | 65.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 31c | 63.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 62.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 29c | 59.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 35c | 58.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 58.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c7…7ef1backed Yes | 30c | 56.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 38c | 52.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 28c | 50.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 45.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…0884backed Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked No | 31c | 35.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 69c | 34.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 31c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…5749backed Yes | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 66c | 24.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 75c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.