Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x771de4a13391c6ec7760359473067606ee8e8845fb623e50af2aafabd20e1b21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 16c | 460.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 432.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 11c | 237.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 230$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 6c | 196.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 178.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 165.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 26c | 162.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 18c | 161.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 160.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 148.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 66c | 143.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 66c | 104.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 16c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 13c | 100.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 14c | 94.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 58c | 86.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 43c | 86.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 81.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 47c | 64.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked Yes | 50c | 64.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 40c | 61.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 60.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 35c | 60.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 42c | 59.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 41c | 54.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 51.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 70c | 50.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 64c | 49.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 63c | 45.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 45c | 44.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…deacbacked Yes | 42c | 44.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 58c | 39.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 47c | 39.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 43c | 32.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 29.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 66c | 27.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 44c | 26.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…044dbacked Yes | 39c | 25.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 42c | 25.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 25.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 60c | 25.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 60c | 24.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 49c | 24.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 23.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 54c | 20.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 59c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 19.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 58c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 60c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.