Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed3f39d98b0dfc80bb41dc394491fca36854718564234c9a441da7e4734069b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked Yes | 4c | 9,509$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.08 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 2c | 3,515$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4b…9beabacked Yes | 2c | 1,108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 2c | 631.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 552.49$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 529.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 5c | 415.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 8c | 269.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 257.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…52eabacked Yes | 7c | 229.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked No | 80c | 215.23$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 9c | 207.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 206$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 20c | 172.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 15c | 170.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 167.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…ebebbacked Yes | 10c | 117.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 104.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 30c | 80.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 74.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 73.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 77c | 71.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 64.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 27c | 64.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 62.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 26c | 59.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 25c | 54.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 40.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 29c | 38.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 78c | 38.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 74c | 37.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 36.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 34.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 77c | 33.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 32.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 78c | 24.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 73c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 76c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 73c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.