Olympics · resolved market
Will Léon Marchand win the most gold medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f8d216531a27e0f36b4a05dfd9f9dc7bc70591c5cbb12be9bab876a88e06808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5230…58f5backed No | 2c | 2,164$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…e7abbacked No | 2c | 1,053$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 55c | 782.42$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.45 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…c7bfbacked No | 2c | 503$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 22c | 367$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.6 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 28c | 307.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 17c | 305.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed No | 65c | 284$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 78c | 265.89$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…40c0backed Yes | 35c | 220$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 77c | 177.49$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.66 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 72c | 167.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed No | 74c | 149.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 21c | 129$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…a012backed Yes | 34c | 100.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…3303backed Yes | 12c | 83.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 21c | 70.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cf…f716backed Yes | 21c | 57.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…fe87backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 67c | 19.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…3d3ebacked Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Léon Marchand win the most gold medals?this page
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the most gold medals?No won
- Will Katie Ledecky win the most gold medals?No won
- Will Mollie O'Callaghan win the most gold medals?No won
- Will Noah Lyles win the most gold medals?No won
- Will Qin Haiyang win the most gold medals?No won
- Will Simone Biles win the most gold medals?No won
- Will another athlete win the most gold medals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.