Olympics · resolved market
Will Simone Biles win the most gold medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5982ec19e65576e2524cf11e11ef1b6331af1af5b55a925e318d8ad1ea00bfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeefb…65d1backed No | 50c | 10,029$5,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,014.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa190…5af2backed Yes | 50c | 10,027$5,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,013.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…c7bfbacked Yes | 13c | 2,460$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.8 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 14c | 212.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…dc7fbacked Yes | 50c | 201.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb33b…092fbacked Yes | 76c | 158.85$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 14c | 140.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 26c | 127.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 75c | 116.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 12c | 108.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…d141backed Yes | 77c | 88.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…40c0backed No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed No | 45c | 71.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd527…a95bbacked Yes | 55c | 71.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked No | 19c | 63.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 26c | 51.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…3f21backed No | 51c | 48.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf153…19e4backed Yes | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…fe87backed Yes | 66c | 40.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…a877backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…d867backed Yes | 63c | 24.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Simone Biles win the most gold medals?this page
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the most gold medals?No won
- Will Katie Ledecky win the most gold medals?No won
- Will Léon Marchand win the most gold medals?Yes won
- Will Mollie O'Callaghan win the most gold medals?No won
- Will Noah Lyles win the most gold medals?No won
- Will Qin Haiyang win the most gold medals?No won
- Will another athlete win the most gold medals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.