Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc64f1a1422b1fee116e9cc5b44537b4901bfeedce2183ebf88e97d348f6e11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94aa…975abacked No | 4c | 1,173$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 568.01$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 7c | 537.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 499.75$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 343.06$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 324.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.75 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 63c | 318.87$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 282.41$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 74c | 244.42$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 154.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed No | 38c | 146.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 27c | 131.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes | 72c | 121.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 44c | 114.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 114.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 37c | 109.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 100.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 63c | 88.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 37c | 64.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 59.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed Yes | 69c | 59.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 51.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 44c | 46.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 69c | 45.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 44.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 34c | 41.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 49c | 39.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 65c | 38.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 31c | 38.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed No | 59c | 32.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…d81fbacked Yes | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 53c | 27.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked No | 73c | 26.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 22.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 80c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 60c | 19.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 72c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.