Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e970bb67828d2a964d84779e1e7478063c9a6ea01dbba83912681a44087cd5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 0c | 15,937$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 0c | 10,810$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 68c | 3,807$2,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.79 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…419abacked Yes | 1c | 1,778$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,459$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 929.48$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 724.42$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 595.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 43c | 471.63$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 48c | 356.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 329.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 323.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 255.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 30c | 170.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 168.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 18c | 167.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 162.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 160.46$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 27c | 155.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 64c | 118.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 117.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 21c | 115.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 14c | 96.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 33c | 96.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 64c | 83.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes | 52c | 81.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 39c | 77.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 76.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 57c | 75.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 22c | 70.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…30abbacked Yes | 33c | 65.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 54c | 63.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 40c | 61.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 45c | 57.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 56.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 44c | 50.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 21c | 50.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 70c | 47.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…ddb7backed No | 67c | 44.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed Yes | 32c | 42.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…cf03backed Yes | 36c | 41.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…fb29backed No | 65c | 40.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 39.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 32c | 38.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 37.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 28c | 36.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 46c | 34.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564a…8871backed No | 79c | 29.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 46c | 29.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…d81fbacked Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 51c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed Yes | 59c | 25.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…cdbabacked No | 69c | 23.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…5746backed Yes | 54c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 65c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.