NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Wizards
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fcb4eed9a4438e11ca904850281bdfe12048a72b8121069fe5f6ca4d65fef25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wizards | 6c | 13,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Wizards | 6c | 10,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.99 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards | 6c | 8,311$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.78 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Wizards | 9c | 7,542$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.78 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…b886backed Wizards | 7c | 7,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Wizards | 0c | 6,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 217 | 23.5%51 W · 166 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Wizards | 10c | 5,223$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.91 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wizards | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Wizards | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ceb…0c87backed Wizards | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 7c | 4,110$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.87 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…b3c5backed Wizards | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 0c | 3,671$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec2…826bbacked Wizards | 7c | 2,593$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.28 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Wizards | 6c | 2,166$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe869…fc0ebacked Wizards | 7c | 1,814$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Wizards | 1c | 1,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 238 | 35.7%85 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Wizards | 9c | 1,727$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.47 | 336 | 38.1%128 W · 208 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 3c | 1,624$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Wizards | 9c | 1,606$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 730 | 51.8%378 W · 352 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12cd…ab49backed Wizards | 1c | 1,604$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Wizards | 5c | 1,575$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…2f8abacked Wizards | 7c | 1,514$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…7352backed Wizards | 8c | 1,424$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…bb32backed Wizards | 7c | 1,375$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…d143backed Wizards | 6c | 1,283$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…adcebacked Wizards | 8c | 1,188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Wizards | 3c | 1,134$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 750 | 2%15 W · 735 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Wizards | 5c | 1,050$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 398 | 43.5%173 W · 225 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6009…acf9backed Wizards | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Wizards | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…b459backed Wizards | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…83bbbacked Wizards | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…8516backed Wizards | 7c | 768.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 178 | 34.8%62 W · 116 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Wizards | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 304 | 40.5%123 W · 181 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…12cbbacked Wizards | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Wizards | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Wizards | 8c | 420.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Wizards | 5c | 399.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 216 | 5.6%12 W · 204 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wizards | 7c | 365.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Wizards | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 501 | 44.7%224 W · 277 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Wizards | 8c | 333$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Wizards | 13c | 235.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 451 | 35%158 W · 293 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Wizards | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Wizards | 8c | 206.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 303 | 31.4%95 W · 208 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…646dbacked Wizards | 7c | 204.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…641dbacked Wizards | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Wizards | 7c | 195.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +52.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…6c23backed Wizards | 10c | 178.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…0b6dbacked Wizards | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…db66backed Wizards | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Wizards | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.