MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool B: Great Britain vs. Mexico
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700a413f99c132e2219215a588748937f7b45887e804131a1babca7ce127d109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mexicoof Great Britain, Mexico
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,738 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Great Britain | 1c | 10,859$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Great Britain | 12c | 10,604$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mexico | 75c | 4,165$3,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.75 | 856 | 35.7%306 W · 550 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Great Britain | 23c | 2,955$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.46 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Great Britain | 9c | 2,953$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.66 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…1189backed Great Britain | 18c | 2,078$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Great Britain | 11c | 1,482$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…df78backed Great Britain | 8c | 1,410$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.49 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Great Britain | 25c | 1,242$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.39 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…3415backed Great Britain | 30c | 785.9$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Great Britain | 18c | 554.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…cbf8backed Great Britain | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…df7fbacked Great Britain | 10c | 486.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Great Britain | 11c | 431.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Mexico | 78c | 333.76$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Great Britain | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Great Britain | 9c | 294$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Great Britain | 15c | 271.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Great Britain | 27c | 210$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Great Britain | 10c | 192.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…fd5abacked Great Britain | 28c | 187.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Great Britain | 13c | 184.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Great Britain | 10c | 182$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Great Britain | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Great Britain | 12c | 177.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Great Britain | 23c | 170$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Great Britain | 8c | 168$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Great Britain | 9c | 142$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Great Britain | 11c | 127.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Mexico | 77c | 127$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Great Britain | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Great Britain | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…0cb2backed Great Britain | 13c | 97.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Mexico | 77c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28d…17e9backed Great Britain | 28c | 70.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Mexico | 80c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.