Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 64°F or higher on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70334bcfef7dddc516bca59b83ef287d32188658c09e089e5d76ce80381b9f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 459.91$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 54c | 341.07$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 68c | 329.35$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 63c | 252$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 48c | 217.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 30c | 201$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 104.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 101.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 61c | 98.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 19c | 80.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…b4aabacked Yes | 79c | 75.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 54c | 73.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 65c | 67.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 45c | 65.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 62c | 64.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 48c | 62.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 57.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 67c | 56.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 53.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb93…d52abacked No | 44c | 45.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 37c | 42.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 34c | 36.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 47c | 36.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…2fcbbacked No | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 56c | 32.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 48c | 30.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 37c | 28.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 59c | 25.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 66c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…a52ebacked Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…e6e1backed Yes | 51c | 20.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 75c | 16.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 71c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 64°F or higher on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 48-49°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.