MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70383c48e3f2311ffbccd8159d49b4407b9272ee2c9a1c168f355eb55891e923
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 5,423$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 5,259$3,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 2,028$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 1,290$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 1,286$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 418.65$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.12 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 353.75$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 348.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 297.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 178.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 153.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 107.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 105.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 101.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 80.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 80.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 76.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 70.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 62.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 62.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 56.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 45.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 34.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 27.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 15.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.