Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706acda4578f5e1852106f6281a0ed663df613246b885689c9262ace4fb83a9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Liquid, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Spirit | 62c | 18,620$11,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,985.52 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Team Liquid | 40c | 10,068$3,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,994.27 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid | 35c | 4,316$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.26 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid | 42c | 3,932$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.21 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid | 39c | 2,635$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.52 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 52c | 1,987$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.96 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid | 47c | 1,475$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Liquid | 47c | 1,005$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.35 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 61c | 819.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.9 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…5e03backed Team Spirit | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Spirit | 49c | 398.87$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.42 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Team Spirit | 69c | 287.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Team Spirit | 51c | 232.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Spirit | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Liquid | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Team Liquid | 33c | 191.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Team Spirit | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Team Spirit | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 149 | 65.8%98 W · 51 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Team Spirit | 57c | 122.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked Team Spirit | 59c | 111.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Liquid | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Liquid | 57c | 102.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Team Liquid | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Spirit | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Team Liquid | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 77.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Team Spirit | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…1a11backed Team Liquid | 50c | 65.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Team Spirit | 55c | 62.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Spirit | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Liquid | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…d220backed Team Spirit | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Spirit | 58c | 34.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…20e7backed Team Liquid | 47c | 32.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab4…676fbacked Team Spirit | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.