Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e06b92a5dd50ee7cf81df9f3c1d8d966a4f35b5a76a765bad400c13d50f4c62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x699f…c3a9backed Team Spirit | 39c | 8,593$3,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,386.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid | 66c | 6,536$4,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.38 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid | 64c | 5,686$3,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.21 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Spirit | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 27c | 2,254$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.58 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Team Liquid | 60c | 2,175$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.58 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Spirit | 26c | 1,856$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.26 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Liquid | 78c | 999$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.78 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit | 50c | 747$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.5 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Team Spirit | 49c | 604.57$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Team Liquid | 26c | 491.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Spirit | 39c | 459.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.99 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Team Liquid | 77c | 384.86$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a2…3d1abacked Team Spirit | 36c | 347.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Team Spirit | 31c | 320.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Team Liquid | 73c | 309.65$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aca…b6dcbacked Team Spirit | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Team Spirit | 54c | 290$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.9 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Team Spirit | 26c | 276.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Spirit | 37c | 263.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…eb6cbacked Team Liquid | 75c | 246.57$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 28c | 246.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Spirit | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked Team Spirit | 25c | 196$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Spirit | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Spirit | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Team Spirit | 63c | 110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Liquid | 73c | 102.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Liquid | 55c | 90.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Team Liquid | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Team Spirit | 32c | 79.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Team Liquid | 73c | 72.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Team Spirit | 38c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…4e7cbacked Team Spirit | 37c | 50.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…653ebacked Team Liquid | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed Team Spirit | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Spirit | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Team Liquid | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Team Spirit | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Team Liquid | 37c | 38.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Team Liquid | 75c | 37.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Liquid | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Team Spirit | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.