TailMyPicks
Market

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Penguins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Penguinsof Capitals, Penguins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 705 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe32e…890bbacked Penguins50c20,898$10,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,446.9636242%152 W · 210 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Capitals50c16,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0002339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Capitals50c9,082$4,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,540.9716645.8%76 W · 90 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Penguins50c8,608$4,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,262.21,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Capitals34c8,463$2,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,866.1810546.7%49 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Penguins59c5,255$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.151,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed Penguins50c4,956$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,456.34763.8%30 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Penguins71c3,619$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.6513754%74 W · 63 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Penguins62c3,616$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.8227958.8%164 W · 115 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed Capitals52c2,973$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.133243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Penguins49c2,094$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.8439752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Capitals49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006450%32 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb307…5c7dbacked Penguins50c2,010$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0052040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Capitals51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02050857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aec…0f2dbacked Capitals50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Capitals49c2,000$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.2297651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9caf…94dcbacked Capitals51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Capitals49c1,439$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.5749351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Penguins65c1,259$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.53,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Penguins50c1,243$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.7235349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f28…b992backed Capitals50c1,102$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.151145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc20c…fa4bbacked Capitals52c1,100$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.954650%23 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Capitals1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Capitals29c1,000$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.585148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed Capitals50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ed0…77f7backed Penguins49c1,000$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.184438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Capitals49c999.93$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.971643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf85…ff54backed Penguins53c940$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9352…cab5backed Penguins50c900$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd96b…aef5backed Capitals50c900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Capitals14c892.05$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5585464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Capitals47c883.63$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.311,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa0…6382backed Capitals31c857.5$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x504b…ab82backed Penguins50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6571…9827backed Capitals50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Capitals50c759$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.564242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Capitals43c701.22$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014844.6%66 W · 82 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Capitals29c691.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007634.2%26 W · 50 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36db…9fd7backed Capitals49c682.63$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.7411751.3%60 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Capitals23c637.59$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.278350.6%42 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Capitals49c620.41$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.131,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Penguins67c619.99$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.61,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Capitals33c602.64$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2721620.4%44 W · 172 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Capitals49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29484051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Capitals30c580$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Penguins58c507.06$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.4191334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Capitals50c482$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24175155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Penguins50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20051044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Penguins50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004841.7%20 W · 28 L-6.9wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x7071…ebabbacked Penguins50c386$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dea…50cfbacked Capitals51c378.43$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…5a38backed Penguins50c370$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0c…b8f8backed Capitals51c362.75$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Capitals48c322.49$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4820649.5%102 W · 104 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Capitals49c303.97$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9429748.8%145 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc2…32eebacked Capitals50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502544%11 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked Capitals49c299.97$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.995966.1%39 W · 20 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+21%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Capitals52c289.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Capitals29c268.67$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795255.8%29 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…c712backed Capitals24c222.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1238744.2%171 W · 216 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Capitals55c200.47$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11012556.8%71 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…0672backed Capitals50c200.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21cf…a38ebacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdbe…fbe3backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0669…8717backed Penguins50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003250%16 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef2…95adbacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29a7…b4c8backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e24…ab78backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004139%16 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-23.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x25a5…81f4backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcfcd…7ec6backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003644.4%16 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e1f…ce4ebacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x133d…0559backed Penguins50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.6wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe807…344ebacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1775…52efbacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdff5…2c9dbacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xebe0…d317backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.4wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-36.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1b69…cff7backed Penguins50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39df…0f16backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8256…599bbacked Penguins50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c23…362cbacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c0…8d13backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003129%9 W · 22 L-5.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d16…514bbacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004440.9%18 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5c5…1ea6backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d3b…f7bebacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002532%8 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x27bd…dba6backed Penguins50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2151…6a44backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0810…969cbacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc5…5880backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc22…a230backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004438.6%17 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c5e…b1e1backed Penguins50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb572…c062backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf62…e9fabacked Penguins50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004845.8%22 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a3…18b8backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cc0…5ca6backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2595…88bcbacked Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b31…ffd9backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6980…e417backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8d…57c0backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed7d…d047backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003941%16 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb046…2317backed Capitals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003834.2%13 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.