Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x709fbfcd9aec9f415040b4e52c35d99a369acf1e3f471d6bfe29246d7adc90de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof 1win, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2924…0f31backed 1win | 62c | 2,443$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.6 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed 1win | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed 1win | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked 1win | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked 1win | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked 1win | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 1win | 63c | 2,119$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.29 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed 1win | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed 1win | 58c | 1,389$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.58 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked 1win | 1c | 1,330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked MODUS | 31c | 1,132$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.16 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed 1win | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +127%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed 1win | 19c | 979.16$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.73 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…0175backed 1win | 1c | 850$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked 1win | 66c | 798.81$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.39 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked MODUS | 27c | 750$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.5 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked MODUS | 39c | 711.93$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.21 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MODUS | 24c | 668.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.74 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked 1win | 62c | 660.16$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.35 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed MODUS | 44c | 646.11$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.82 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed 1win | 74c | 486.07$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.05 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed 1win | 58c | 472.89$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.99 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked 1win | 69c | 426.7$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.42 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 1win | 20c | 396.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 1win | 70c | 373.84$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed MODUS | 51c | 344.02$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.49 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked 1win | 6c | 342.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 61c | 319.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.44 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked MODUS | 35c | 301.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.82 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 37c | 244.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS | 29c | 226.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.91 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…c97abacked MODUS | 51c | 207.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.41 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked MODUS | 29c | 174.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked 1win | 77c | 149.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed MODUS | 36c | 144.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed MODUS | 36c | 144.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed MODUS | 40c | 115.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 222 | 59%131 W · 91 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f8…6ef8backed MODUS | 43c | 113.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed 1win | 70c | 112.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MODUS | 24c | 97.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9d…1524backed 1win | 74c | 81.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1win | 60c | 81.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked 1win | 55c | 70.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 29c | 70.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed MODUS | 24c | 69.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked MODUS | 34c | 64.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed 1win | 60c | 51.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked 1win | 45c | 50.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked 1win | 50c | 47.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed 1win | 54c | 42.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…90e1backed MODUS | 49c | 36.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…8e37backed MODUS | 37c | 36.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…01e9backed 1win | 48c | 35.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MODUS | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed 1win | 64c | 31.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked 1win | 68c | 30.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f48…ba84backed MODUS | 64c | 30.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed 1win | 48c | 29.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed 1win | 59c | 28.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked 1win | 65c | 26.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed 1win | 40c | 26.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed MODUS | 61c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed 1win | 70c | 20.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked 1win | 72c | 19.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed 1win | 74c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.