Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahce beat AZ Alkmaar?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70a3cdfbccea785d4e36327c799b0aefc74752d419fa60662f2792ec9174798f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 56c | 2,879$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fde…ed39backed Yes | 44c | 2,280$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 34c | 1,774$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 68c | 1,772$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.52 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 51c | 1,163$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.4 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…9d2fbacked Yes | 49c | 526.71$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 57c | 462.46$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 415.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3456…3f87backed Yes | 43c | 350.4$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d4…d566backed Yes | 49c | 304.51$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked No | 57c | 263.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 55c | 244.67$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 58c | 230.37$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…9a80backed Yes | 28c | 219.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 59c | 169.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4b…f1e6backed Yes | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 52c | 152.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 43c | 118.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 51c | 117.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…9cd8backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 49c | 92.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 48c | 89.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 39c | 84.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb3…9542backed Yes | 40c | 82.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 49c | 79.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 36c | 58.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc073…4b06backed Yes | 43c | 56.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd686…055abacked No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…485ebacked Yes | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…be0bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 55c | 45.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…5374backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…0f95backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b3…5e9fbacked No | 57c | 39.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…fcb4backed Yes | 43c | 39.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0a99backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff24…c1c7backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa153…4e37backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…6987backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5119…a581backed Yes | 47c | 27.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc4…331ebacked Yes | 47c | 25.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476f…9533backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahce beat AZ Alkmaar?this page
- Will AZ Alkmaar beat Fenerbahce?Yes won
- Will the match between AZ Alkmaar and Fenerbahce end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.