MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70c07d82ccbd0dccf0e265003c1f882181a3085e7822578a704217c316b5ca55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Under | 56c | 9,291$5,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,088.06 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 9,262$4,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,075.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 8,352$4,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,924.49 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Over | 48c | 4,023$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.04 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 2,476$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 47c | 2,010$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.62 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 1,941$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,776$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…8fd4backed Under | 52c | 1,545$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…0ec9backed Over | 47c | 957.45$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 840.96$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 52c | 674$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.52 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 47c | 667.49$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.72 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 26c | 653.79$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 647.8$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 573.7$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.08 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 5c | 568$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 475.02$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.36 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 51c | 356.89$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.88 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 149.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 91.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 19c | 64.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Under | 52c | 51.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 50c | 49.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 47c | 48.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 25c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…7307backed Under | 68c | 25.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 75c | 23.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Over | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Under | 77c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.