Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70c7ec3b8b9a351d3e8ce1e32cd5c2652a1f06fa01942c37c305fa10a1e07456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Arkansas Bearsof Central Arkansas Bears, Eastern Kentucky Colonels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 46c | 537.77$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.4 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 54c | 112.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Central Arkansas Bears | 31c | 85.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…e89bbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Central Arkansas Bears | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 51c | 39.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Central Arkansas Bears | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 47c | 31.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 51c | 30.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Central Arkansas Bears | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 54c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 53c | 20.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 54c | 19.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-6.5)this page
- Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. Central Arkansas BearsCentral Arkansas Bears won
- Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 151.5Over won
- Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 152.5Over won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-5.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.