Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Insomnia vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70ce6078a71d59ab2054137ec6994bb6b73494dd6967c9ed089ba65b1a215d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REJECTof Insomnia, REJECT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Insomnia | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb9…cb5dbacked Insomnia | 36c | 1,141$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.86 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed REJECT | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked REJECT | 64c | 962.92$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.54 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Insomnia | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 70 | 1.4%1 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Insomnia | 28c | 576.42$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.95 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Insomnia | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Insomnia | 21c | 408.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Insomnia | 22c | 403.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ab4abacked REJECT | 65c | 392.69$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.17 | 254 | 44.9%114 W · 140 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed REJECT | 55c | 350.8$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed REJECT | 57c | 339.18$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.29 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Insomnia | 34c | 332.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed REJECT | 78c | 325.36$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Insomnia | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed REJECT | 66c | 298.71$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 390 | 42.6%166 W · 224 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Insomnia | 34c | 296.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed REJECT | 72c | 273.61$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Insomnia | 35c | 256.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Insomnia | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked REJECT | 64c | 224.39$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…c930backed Insomnia | 36c | 205.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 212 | 57.1%121 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…8d93backed Insomnia | 62c | 162.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e98…f208backed Insomnia | 27c | 120.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…9848backed Insomnia | 34c | 118.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked REJECT | 72c | 111.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Insomnia | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked Insomnia | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Insomnia | 41c | 82.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Insomnia | 37c | 71.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed REJECT | 65c | 61.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed REJECT | 62c | 59.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed REJECT | 63c | 52.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed REJECT | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 146 | 61.6%90 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed REJECT | 69c | 49.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked REJECT | 63c | 46.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Insomnia | 28c | 45.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed REJECT | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked REJECT | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Insomnia | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed REJECT | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed REJECT | 51c | 36.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed REJECT | 65c | 35.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed REJECT | 65c | 31.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REJECT | 71c | 30.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked REJECT | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked REJECT | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7125…a5aabacked Insomnia | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked REJECT | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed REJECT | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc58…1e76backed REJECT | 73c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked REJECT | 65c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked Insomnia | 68c | 14.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Insomnia vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 2this page
- Valorant: Insomnia vs REJECT - Map 1 WinnerInsomnia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.