F1 · resolved market
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70d5269f0b81a954a45568114dc5a7673317fc5172ccd967258bf1925e5c3803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,604 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,858$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 1c | 1,764$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes | 10c | 756.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…5272backed Yes | 16c | 526.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…0016backed Yes | 22c | 484.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…d9d8backed Yes | 14c | 402.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…231cbacked Yes | 15c | 373.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 12c | 256.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 12c | 246.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Yes | 15c | 240$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb0…1f7bbacked Yes | 15c | 231.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 14c | 213$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 8c | 156.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 13c | 102.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 13c | 99.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…cd86backed Yes | 10c | 98.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…2749backed Yes | 14c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 14c | 80.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…cf71backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 79c | 41.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 71c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Esteban Ocon win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.