Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70d709d41df72565e202d3bb4d2166bd67fa80e0fd239347948284417d339a45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 963.17$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 67c | 311.53$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.43 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 289.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.78 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 18c | 212.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 205.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 49c | 205.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 50c | 199.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 182.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…2069backed Yes | 33c | 182$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 51c | 180.64$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 67c | 180$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 33c | 180$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 33c | 170.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 143.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 40c | 136$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 47c | 128.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 126.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 123.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 68c | 121$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 113$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 69c | 105.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 104.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 90.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 87.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 80.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 37c | 77.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 73c | 70.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 34c | 64.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 59.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 35c | 58.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 54.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 67c | 54.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 52.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 50.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 49.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 40.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 40c | 39.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 36.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 55c | 29.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 70c | 29.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 63c | 26.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 71c | 26.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 55c | 26.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 58c | 22.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 60c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…6db5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 55c | 18.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 66c | 16.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 14.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.