Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70f284e43db94dec422c92b0f37c2b21ab65d4c89237fc07517d05a9e38a7d3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3084…2638backed No | 42c | 530$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +235.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 368.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484d…4dcbbacked Yes | 42c | 270$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…0e3bbacked Yes | 58c | 265$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…b0febacked No | 58c | 245$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d06…d484backed Yes | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 8c | 227$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…b3b1backed Yes | 42c | 225$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6256…3c82backed Yes | 58c | 205$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…f075backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 8c | 176$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…d4cdbacked Yes | 39c | 174.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…5bb1backed Yes | 42c | 170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…471cbacked Yes | 42c | 165$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb553…a77bbacked Yes | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc00…d9e8backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…9945backed No | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…c1debacked No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…d5e8backed No | 59c | 145$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…0824backed No | 58c | 135$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…1093backed Yes | 58c | 135$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…7c58backed Yes | 41c | 135$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…5e3cbacked No | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…629cbacked No | 59c | 115$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…602dbacked Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…234ebacked No | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…394ebacked Yes | 58c | 105$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…0bcdbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…6575backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…224bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 68c | 98.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…174fbacked No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 31c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ba…e172backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…49ffbacked No | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…2306backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d1…05c6backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…b1a7backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…1563backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x109d…f1ddbacked Yes | 38c | 52.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked No | 52c | 51.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…3cf2backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x679e…66d1backed No | 55c | 48.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…3c80backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff41…6699backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3e…46c6backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3880backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 42c | 35.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…5bfabacked No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc30…e76ebacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…dc59backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…e47cbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…4e21backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…fff3backed No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 64c | 25.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…18f1backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.