Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd255705d0783dea8385567fcfd289567544700f5248735fffec71bf40756f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa911…9f8abacked No | 67c | 640$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…6111backed Yes | 33c | 420$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 28cpaid | +223.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 387.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.14 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 340.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…b336backed Yes | 28c | 295$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…c09cbacked Yes | 28c | 265$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…bfedbacked Yes | 28c | 260$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…3a3abacked Yes | 33c | 260$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +384.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 22c | 223.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.93 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e9…94e7backed Yes | 28c | 175$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…8581backed No | 72c | 165$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…7939backed No | 67c | 165$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…c1debacked No | 72c | 160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…f61abacked No | 67c | 145$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 22c | 143.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d68…e721backed No | 72c | 135$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…c450backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…5942backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…fce4backed Yes | 28c | 105$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a91…9e12backed Yes | 28c | 105$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d06…d484backed No | 72c | 105$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…6dafbacked Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +113%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…d61abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…1226backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…5bfabacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…9130backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…a356backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…ac82backed No | 69c | 72.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…f1cdbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…a9d1backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf39…5bb4backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x679e…66d1backed No | 70c | 42.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 26c | 40.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6646…f2e4backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…c901backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ec…d991backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…fe7bbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…6122backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…4d98backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…b36dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…234ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6490…2dfebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb134…3e8abacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…6097backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.