Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71044dacccfdff87aefba5d79ca4a82d59e1819baf835c34b2f38900305df9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 2,369$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 563.83$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 64c | 419.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.34 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 408.49$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 41c | 358.67$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 304.39$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 302.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 296.22$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 43c | 280.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 218$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 214.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 189.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 35c | 175.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 42c | 164$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 162.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 128.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 124.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 118.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 46c | 118$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 110.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 46c | 108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 97.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 97.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 91.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 88.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 67.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 44c | 63.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 58.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 56.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 56.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 50.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 41c | 48.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 46c | 39.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 37.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 36.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 41c | 36.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 35.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 41c | 33.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…9235backed Yes | 36c | 33.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 31.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 64c | 29.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 57c | 21.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 65c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 64c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 59c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 72c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.