Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d089803711a75f3ad3bc4aa6d5c9ff2e24d8b9016bcbfa33328a85f38fbec3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 596.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 362$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 228.44$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 39c | 215.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 72c | 207.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 186.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 130.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 117.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 100.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 100.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 92.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 77c | 78.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 77.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 68.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 64.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 64.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 56.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 51.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 65c | 49.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 24c | 45.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 42.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 43c | 35.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 32.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 74c | 32.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 76c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 28.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 78c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 24.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…4c2cbacked No | 65c | 23.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 18.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…494cbacked No | 79c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.