Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71119a59651bc4da10da6c4b1fb8f9d9851e03dad040e247fc01523fe444f88d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Popyrin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Popyrin | 44c | 1,825$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.03 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241a…a9c8backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 1,700$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Popyrin | 44c | 631.32$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.38 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Popyrin | 8c | 478.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 405$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.31 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Auger-Aliassime | 60c | 263.33$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Popyrin | 59c | 243.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.91 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Popyrin | 47c | 205.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Popyrin | 42c | 196.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Auger-Aliassime | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…b81ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 64c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Popyrin | 50c | 39.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked Popyrin | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Popyrin | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)this page
- Popyrin vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Popyrin vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Rotterdam Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime won
- Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.