Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: FTS vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71386256d7211be1bce62c13270b46ddc2cc609dcfca6d3fa79d1d560dcfe712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Level UPof FTS, Level UP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked FTS | 35c | 2,098$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.77 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Level UP | 79c | 1,616$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.44 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Level UP | 56c | 1,400$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.99 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Level UP | 74c | 1,380$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.8 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked FTS | 26c | 1,373$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.04 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked FTS | 62c | 838.26$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.32 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed FTS | 29c | 832.95$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.82 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3a71backed Level UP | 69c | 640$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked FTS | 24c | 637.26$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.39 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Level UP | 56c | 427.67$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.05 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Level UP | 70c | 355.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed FTS | 30c | 329.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…ffe2backed FTS | 53c | 223.87$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed FTS | 44c | 200.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…affdbacked Level UP | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…3691backed FTS | 39c | 191.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked FTS | 13c | 189.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed FTS | 44c | 180.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…f884backed Level UP | 59c | 169.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FTS | 32c | 163.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked FTS | 39c | 156.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…eef7backed FTS | 39c | 150.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…8b19backed FTS | 46c | 144.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Level UP | 71c | 140.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Level UP | 72c | 138.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Level UP | 77c | 116.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Level UP | 54c | 116$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed FTS | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94e8…f707backed FTS | 42c | 97.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed FTS | 52c | 95.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed FTS | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked FTS | 31c | 94.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Level UP | 66c | 91.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked FTS | 27c | 90.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed FTS | 24c | 89.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Level UP | 56c | 82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed FTS | 22c | 80.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…ebdcbacked FTS | 38c | 79.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Level UP | 65c | 79.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7049…85a5backed Level UP | 51c | 71.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Level UP | 55c | 66.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc36e…ec80backed FTS | 65c | 58.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Level UP | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked Level UP | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed FTS | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed Level UP | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Level UP | 68c | 31.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Level UP | 64c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked FTS | 40c | 29.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…8b29backed Level UP | 76c | 26.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 148 | 61.5%91 W · 57 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed FTS | 44c | 26.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Level UP | 56c | 22.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…c9f4backed FTS | 61c | 18.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…b188backed Level UP | 76c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Level UP | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: FTS vs Level UP - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: FTS vs Level UP (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsLevel UP won
- Dota 2: FTS vs Level UP - Game 2 WinnerFTS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.