Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: FTS vs Level UP - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee3c2bfb705b0a5c50d083fc0d749bcc92bd98ccc1ab40b5fce82938006b4bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FTSof FTS, Level UP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed FTS | 46c | 3,307$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.52 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked FTS | 32c | 2,047$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.85 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Level UP | 26c | 1,600$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.99 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Level UP | 65c | 1,017$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.39 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a5d9backed FTS | 80c | 866.07$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.62 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Level UP | 32c | 516.02$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.18 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Level UP | 63c | 504.08$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.57 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked FTS | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Level UP | 48c | 426$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.55 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed FTS | 50c | 399.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.4 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…3691backed Level UP | 17c | 350.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked FTS | 28c | 300$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.2 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…eef7backed FTS | 30c | 268.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.81 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Level UP | 33c | 228.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Level UP | 72c | 220$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed FTS | 29c | 216.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Level UP | 67c | 213.8$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.11 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…b188backed FTS | 49c | 204.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Level UP | 18c | 194.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Level UP | 65c | 190.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Level UP | 44c | 180.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Level UP | 58c | 159.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Level UP | 15c | 155.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked Level UP | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Level UP | 66c | 136.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed FTS | 77c | 115.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Level UP | 55c | 107.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed FTS | 56c | 106.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 235 | 62.1%146 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed FTS | 37c | 101.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed FTS | 31c | 96.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Level UP | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Level UP | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Level UP | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Level UP | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed Level UP | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Level UP | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed FTS | 37c | 40.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Level UP | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Level UP | 62c | 36.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Level UP | 45c | 32.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…8703backed Level UP | 80c | 32.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Level UP | 48c | 28.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Level UP | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40f…5f56backed Level UP | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked FTS | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Level UP | 71c | 18.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: FTS vs Level UP - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: FTS vs Level UP (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsLevel UP won
- Dota 2: FTS vs Level UP - Game 1 WinnerLevel UP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.