NBA · resolved market
NBA Summer League: Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x715b3914a263c044b883470e4262a565ac621df0a054dd2955434e2561194e92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden State Warriorsof Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Dallas Mavericks | 2c | 3,007$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 312 | 22.1%69 W · 243 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde3d…6b1fbacked Dallas Mavericks | 21c | 973.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…939ebacked Dallas Mavericks | 21c | 955.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Golden State Warriors | 66c | 683.58$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.58 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc473…f293backed Dallas Mavericks | 35c | 568.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Dallas Mavericks | 4c | 448.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Warriors | 76c | 425.92$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed Golden State Warriors | 67c | 380$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…bb13backed Golden State Warriors | 65c | 329.56$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +114%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Dallas Mavericks | 31c | 319.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Dallas Mavericks | 28c | 286.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Dallas Mavericks | 36c | 264.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Golden State Warriors | 76c | 205.37$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Dallas Mavericks | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf990…88bcbacked Dallas Mavericks | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Dallas Mavericks | 8c | 153.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…931dbacked Dallas Mavericks | 7c | 147.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bd…226cbacked Golden State Warriors | 62c | 144.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Dallas Mavericks | 14c | 140.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Dallas Mavericks | 35c | 137.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…af4dbacked Golden State Warriors | 68c | 126$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Dallas Mavericks | 15c | 111.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Golden State Warriors | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Golden State Warriors | 64c | 96.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Dallas Mavericks | 11c | 90.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Dallas Mavericks | 14c | 90.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 189 | 30.7%58 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Golden State Warriors | 71c | 60.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Dallas Mavericks | 37c | 57.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a21…6a2ebacked Dallas Mavericks | 35c | 56.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Golden State Warriors | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Dallas Mavericks | 33c | 47.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Golden State Warriors | 65c | 46.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 259 | 54.4%141 W · 118 L | +34.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d920backed Golden State Warriors | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a4…d44cbacked Golden State Warriors | 69c | 43.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Dallas Mavericks | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 362 | 43.9%159 W · 203 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Dallas Mavericks | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9661…88fbbacked Golden State Warriors | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.